News Analysis: Sprinter now faces a marathon By TODD S. PURDUM (New York Times) Updated: 2004-03-03 14:34
In just six weeks, John Kerry has made short work of every dogged Democratic
rival, rebounding from political near-death to vibrant life as his party's
all-but-official nominee.
But as Ronald Reagan delighted in reminding the Democrats 20 years ago when
he became the last Republican president elected to a second term: "You ain't
seen nothin' yet."
Propelled by the twin tides of electability and inevitability since his upset
victory in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19, Mr. Kerry now stands atop a Democratic
Party that is energized and unified in its opposition to President Bush, who is
no better than tied with or trailing Mr. Kerry in the latest polls. The process
devised by Democratic officials to produce an early nominee has worked as
intended.
But the real test is just beginning.
Tomorrow, the Bush campaign will begin spending the first of its tens of
millions of dollars on campaign advertising aimed at shaping the race: first
celebrating Mr. Bush, then reintroducing Mr. Kerry, the Massachusetts senator,
to the nation in the most unflattering light possible.
Mr. Kerry has been tested, but perhaps not as much as he would have been in a
longer primary season. His appeal to independents and Republicans remains
largely unproved. And he now faces an eight-month general election campaign
against a president with all the powers of incumbency at his command.
"It's not rocket science," said John Weaver, who learned what it was like to
run against Mr. Bush as the political director for Senator John McCain's
presidential campaign four years ago. "There'll now be a `definition race' and
the Bush-Cheney forces will try to define Kerry as quickly and negatively as
possible in the coming months, and his challenge is to not only fight that off,
at least to a draw, but at the same time in doing so, define himself."
In war and politics, Mr. Kerry has proved himself in past battles and he
professed to be ready for the fray. "Before us lie long months of effort and of
challenge and we understand that," he said in victory last night. "We have no
illusions about the Republican attack machine and what our opponents have done
in the past and what they may try to do in the future. But I know that together
we are equal to this task. I am a fighter."
Still, Mr. Kerry's last opponent, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, ran
a campaign that was almost entirely upbeat, with only the mildest kind of
attacks in recent days, yet he seemed to rankle Mr. Kerry toward the end.
By contrast, Mr. Bush has shown himself to be a sharp, disciplined,
resourceful political infighter when his back is against the wall. "No more Mr.
Nice Guy" may now be the phrase of the day.
Already, the Kerry and Bush camps are exchanging daily dueling e-mail
messages. Yesterday, the Bush campaign's morning "Kerry Line" celebrated the
first anniversary of the Department of Homeland Security by attacking Mr. Kerry
for joining Senate Democrats in initially resisting Mr. Bush's efforts to alter
Civil Service rules in the proposed department. The Kerry campaign countered
with a statement from former Senator Max Cleland of Georgia, who was defeated
for re-election in the bitter aftermath of wrangling over the issue, saying:
"George Bush is all hat and no cattle on the issue of homeland security."
Last night, Mr. Kerry attacked Mr. Bush as "the great divider" for proposing
to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage.
"We say that he has no right to misuse the most precious document in our
history in an effort to divide this nation and distract us from our goals," Mr.
Kerry said in his most pointed language on the subject by far. "We resoundingly
reject the politics of fear and distortion."
Earlier, Mr. Kerry left the campaign trail and returned to the Senate to cast
an unshrinking vote in favor of extending a 10-year ban on assault weapons that
expires this year, and to accuse Mr. Bush of "walking away" from his 2000
campaign pledge to support its extension.
He may be from Massachusetts, Mr. Kerry seemed to be all but shouting, but
Michael S. Dukakis he is not.
With his main rivals now finished, Mr. Kerry can devote himself to raising
the money he badly needs to compete with Mr. Bush. Because he chose, like Mr.
Bush, not to accept matching federal campaign money, he will not be bound by
spending or contribution limits. Independent advocacy groups and the Democratic
Party are also prepared to spend millions of dollars against Mr. Bush.
For now, the Democrats' spirited primary contest and Mr. Kerry's almost
weekly victories have put the Republicans on the defensive. Vice President Dick
Cheney, who has emerged in some recent polls as a potential drag on his party's
ticket and who rarely gives interviews, appeared yesterday on all three cable
news networks, his comments interspersed with coverage of Mr. Kerry's big day.
Today and tomorrow, Mr. Bush will be in California, scene of the biggest
delegate prize yesterday. He will be raising more money toward his goal of $175
million - hardly the preferred springtime posture of a "war president," as he
recently described himself.
But Mr. Kerry can no longer count on the automatic platform provided by
contested primaries to keep his name in the headlines. Mr. Bush now has a
single, big target in Mr. Kerry and can focus on him in the long months leading
to the Democratic convention in Boston in July.
"I don't think the frame has been set for this election at all," said Don
Sipple, a veteran Republican consultant who worked for Bob Dole in his 1996
presidential campaign. "A natural agenda is in the minds of the electorate, and
I think the first one who kind of connects with that will benefit from it.
"The economy is going to be an issue, and so is the war," Mr. Sipple
continued. "The picture's murky on both peace and prosperity, which suggests
you're going into a very tight contest with a lot of twists and turns. I think
the administration will have a period of a good three weeks or so and the data
will show it, and then the Democrats will, and it'll all be within the margin."
For all Mr. Kerry's early success, his biggest vulnerability may be that so
few voters really know him. In his two decades in the Senate, his reserved
personality has not always worn well with colleagues and party leaders. He now
faces scrutiny, second-guessing and investigations that might make the primaries
look like a picnic.
Three days before the 10 Democratic contests of Super Tuesday, a national
poll by the National Annenberg Election Survey at the University of Pennsylvania
found that just over a third of registered voters who said they intended to
participate believed they had learned enough about the candidates to make an
informed choice. A like percentage expressed a similar view in the 21 states
that have yet to vote. Starting now, Mr. Kerry must help fill in the blanks.
Mr. Bush will be only too ready to do so.
